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2004 ELECTIONS - VOTE ONLINE FOR YOUR PARTY
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JULUKA has set up an online voting poll for you to cast your vote.
The poll will not count in the "real" South African elections but will be a
very interesting indicator of expat sentiment.
Please note that only one vote per person will be allowed, any duplicate votes will be discarded. Cast your vote here
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Political Parties Gear Up For Elections
By Daniel Silke
South Africans have no shortage of political parties from which to choose in the forthcoming elections on April 14th. With over 100 parties standing nationally or in provincial elections, voters can find almost any interest group which represents their particular lifestyle or philosophy.
However, while smaller political parties certainly extend the ‘Democratic’ value of the election, it is only a handful of parties that are likely to gain any significant representation in parliament.
The African National Congress (ANC) looks set to at least maintain its close-on 66% of the popular vote. Although it has lost its electoral alliance with the IFP (Inkatha Freedom Party) in Kwa-Zulu Natal, it has secured an important electoral pact with the NNP (New National Party) both nationally, and more significantly, in the Western Cape.
The ANC election machine is well oiled and certainly well funded. With tax-payer funding for political parties based on their existing strength in parliament, the ANC will receive the lion share of state support. Although President Mbeki has been much maligned in both the international and domestic media for his stance on HIV-AIDS and also Zimbabwe, he retains a remarkable personal popularity when campaigning. ANC campaign gurus have softened the President’s image for the campaign.
Clearly, the ANC’s campaign is designed to offset criticism that the party has not done all it can to improve the lives of ordinary people. President Mbeki has taken a somewhat less aggressive stance in campaigning and has admitted faults in service delivery.
The ANC may well reach 66% of the total national vote on it own. It could, with a high voter turn-out, scrape home in the Western Cape, although it may still need an alliance with the NNP to rule. The only province to remain potentially out of its grasp may be KwaZulu-Natal where a concerted IFP/DA ‘Coalition for Change’ can gain power.
With such a strident ruling party, the Democratic Alliance (now without the NNP component of its alliance) will be desperately trying to raise its share of the vote from its current 9%. The party has ditched its very aggressive (but electorally successful) ‘Fight Back’ campaign of 1999 for a much softer ‘South Africa Deserves Better’ feel. The more ‘listening’ rather than ‘fighting’ approach is designed to attract potential black voters who feel uncomfortable with the somewhat strident approach of the DA leader, Tony Leon.
The DA has solidified its position as the largest opposition party since the last election. They certainly enjoy vast support amongst White, Coloured and Indian voters and will be looking for the much needed breakthrough into the black market.
The DA leader is also criss-crossing South Africa and spending much time in poor rural and township areas. The old-style Liberal electioneering so characteristic of the days of Helen Suzman and the Progressive Party has given way to a new muscular liberal entity intent on fighting the ANC head-on and in its strongholds.
Given its efficient election machine, the DA can expect to be the star performer of this election. It is possible that the party could grow to 15% or even more of the national vote thus enabling it to elect a considerable 60 members to parliament. It will try hard to win the Western Cape although this does seem out of its reach. More possible is a victory (in alliance with the IFP) in KwaZulu-Natal and so prevent a clean sweep by the ANC.
Other political parties will have a tough time. The Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) will again look to reel in Zulu votes in KwaZulu-Natal. It is pinning its hopes on a strong DA performance in the Province so it can continue to rule in coalition. Expect anywhere between 6-8% of the national vote.
For the New National Party (NNP), the 2004 election represents something of a watershed. For the first time, voters will be asked to judge on its recent alliance with the ANC and early indications suggest they will deal harshly with the party. The NNP might see its support (currently at 7%) dwindle to a mere 3-4%.
Patricia De Lille’s new Independent Democrats(ID) faces the daunting task of establishing itself as a force to be reckoned with on a very shoe-string budget. The ID is largely searching for votes in traditional DA areas and her slogan of “More Voice for your Vote” may attract a dedicated yet numerically small vote. De Lille will herself be elected and her party may reach 2%.
Bantu Holomisa’s United Democratic Movement (UDM) is also struggling to remain in parliament. The party suffered when two-thirds of its MP’s left to join the ANC during the floor-crossing window. Now Holomisa, the darling of the 1999 elections, is fighting for his own political life.
The old white right-wing groups are now represented by the Freedom Front Plus (FF+) under the leadership of Corne Mulder. With only three seats in parliament, the FF+ will try to at least hold onto their representation. However, the party has re-invigorated themselves over the last year and may attract some hard-line DA supporters back into the fold.
The African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP) continues to campaign effectively within the Christian revivalist communities and the party should at least, maintain its current 6 seats in parliament.
For entertainment value, the Keep it Straight and Simple party (KISS) is back, while The Organization Party (TOP), is headed by a former contestant of the popular ‘Big Brother’ reality television series. The Peace and Justice party is campaigning on a pro-death penalty ticket while environmentalists can save the planet by voting for the Green Party. The Gay and Lesbian Party has now endorsed the DA instead of standing alone.
South Africa is set for a somewhat predictable election. Key questions will be whether the ANC garners its 66% majority and whether the DA can make some inroads into black areas to threaten the ANC. Both KwaZulu-Natal and the Western Cape are up for grabs and this is where the real battles will be. All that remains now is for Democracy to take its course.
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